Tomorrow January 8th, the Florida Gators and the Oklahoma Sooners meet for the first time ever in the BCS Title game. Florida hopes to win its 2nd national title in 3 years. Oklahoma hopes to reverse its current losing streak in BCS games and hopes to not repeat its performance in their last title game appearance as they were embarrassed by USC 55-19.

This game has all the drama of a Shakespearean play. Two Heisman trophy winning quarterbacks; one of the best offenses against one of the best defenses in the nation. SEC vs Big12. Coach Stoops who could have been the Gators coach. Does it get any better?

Most pundits have been talking all about whether or not Florida will be able to stop the Sooner’s offensive machine. Talking about their no huddle scheme and how they are able to seemingly score at will. It all sounds very familiar to 2006 when everyone talked about how great Ohio State’s offense. How they were the greatest offense of all time and that the Gators had no chance in this game to even keep it close. We all know how that turned out. OU is no OSU though, they are much better. Here are my thoughts on the game and what the Gators need to do to win.

Looking at Oklahoma’s record and doing the math. OU gives up an average of 28 points a game. They average more than 50 points in scoring. Most people agree that they have not played a defense anywhere near as fast as the Gators and Texas proved that their own defense wasn’t anything special by giving up 21 points to Ohio State who didn’t score a TD against Penn State. This transitive analysis isn’t always accurate but for now it’s all we have so let’s pretend it means something. Texas held OU to 35 points. It stands to reason Florida can keep them under that amount.

Looking at Oklahoma’s stats, the thing that stands out the most when comparing them to the Florida is how much Florida spreads the ball around in the running game. The Sooners have 2 rushers with over 1000 yards rushing in DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown. The Gators have 4 with over 500yds and 1 with over 400. Receiving stats are pretty comparable so call that a wash.

What Florida needs to do to win:

1. Don’t give up the big play. The Sooners take advantage of opponents much the same way as Florida, get on top quickly and coast from there.

2. Win on special teams. If Florida can get a blocked punt or score off special teams, it will be a huge momentum burst. Oklahoma is very weak on special teams so this is Florida’s best chance for getting a big lead.

3. Spread the ball around. If this turns into a Tebow up the middle, Percy sweep game, the Gators will lose. Demps, Rainey, Thompson, Cooper and Hernandez need to be heavily involved in the offense. Anyone think OU is scheming to stop the shuttle pass to Hernandez? It has been good for 20+ yards every time it’s been called.

4. Backups on defense need to play their best game. Marsh, Cunningham and Dunlap are going to get tested in how good of shape they are in. Florida backups need to play just as well so they don’t miss a beat on defense.

5. Get pressure on Bradford. Always the key to winning any game. Putting pressure on the quarterback. It will only take a couple of bad throws to get some three and outs. If we can get some pressure that will take stress off our secondary and give us the opportunity to take some chances. Will Hill will probably get a lot of playing time.

What Oklahoma needs to do to win:

1. Establish the run. Chris Brown has to shoulder the load with Murray out. Florida has proven to be able to shut down big running backs that are behind good offensive lines. Oklahoma needs to be able to run the ball. If OU is forced to pass that will make it easier to defend. Florida has proven time and time again that when it knows what’s coming, it can stop anyone.

2. Don’t give up big returns to Brandon James. If Florida can setup great field position with a blocked punt or a return for a TD or short field that will force OU to play catch up which it is not used to doing.

3. Complete a couple of deep passes. If OU can get a couple of deep plays (like ‘Bama did with Julio Jones). It will spread Florida out and will allow a big run or two and keep Florida guessing.

4. Get a big return on kickoff. Florida is vulnerable on kickoff returns. Sturgis has been average at best in kicking it deep. Coach Meyer prides himself on special teams and it stands to reason he will have any issues addressed for this game.

5. Make Tebow one dimensional. If the Sooners can shut down Tebow running the ball when no one is open, that will force him to throw the ball more or take a sack. Tebow doesn’t do well when he can’t run away from pressure and get 3-4 yards at minimum (Georgia 2007, Auburn 2007).

Bottomline:

Coach Meyer is one of the best big game coaches in the nation. Coach Stoops has been less than great in the last few years and the last time he went up against another great big game coach (Coach Carroll of USC), he hasn’t measured up. With Percy back in the lineup and more than a month to prepare, the Gators should be able to slow down the Sooners high powered offense enough and the Sooners defense has not proven it can stop a great offense. The wins against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State aren’t looking as impressive anymore as Tech got stomped by the #4 SEC team and Oklahoma State got stomped by Oregon a team that gave up a lot of points to some of the worst teams in the PAC-10.

Prediction: UF 42 OU 31