The Gators’ NCAA Tournament chances look a lot better this week, than a week ago. Wins over LSU and Arkansas have evened their SEC record at 2-2. The overall record is now 13-5. 5 losses might not make a lot of fans happy right now with 2 games left with Tennessee and 1 each with Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State, but considering some of the injuries and illnesses, it could be a lot worse.

Another thing working in the Gators’ favor is that there are a lot of big name programs who would dearly love to only have 5 losses right now. North Carolina, UCLA, Arizona, Louisville, Marquette, Connecticut, Indiana, Oklahoma, Alabama, and LSU are all teams that you normally see in the Big Dance. All of them have more than 5 losses. UCLA has 10 already. North Carolina has 7 including 3 straight. UConn has also lost 3 in a row. It’s also a safe assumption that there are not many on that list who have a win against a Michigan State. Maybe not even a Florida State.

If the Gators can stay hot for the next week, they have two winnable games. South Carolina comes to the O’Dome on Saturday. They have 7 losses themselves. If they leave with 8 they have to be on life support also. Then on Wednesday, Georgia comes to Gainesville. If UF has only 5 losses still this time next week, some of the above list will lose again. The NCAA chances will look pretty good for Billy’s Boys.

But it’s not all good news. Starting with a road game at Tennessee, the schedule down the stretch is tough. Following UT, the Gators host Mississippi State, Xavier, Auburn, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. They also have road games vs. Alabama, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Georgia and Kentucky. Of those 6 road game, the Gators would be doing well to go 3-3. That would be 8 losses if they can win all of the remaining home games. With that list of teams coming in, 2 losses would be a great effort. That makes 10 losses for the regular season.

10 losses should be a good enough mark to get the Gators in. Especially with wins over Michigan State, Florida State, NC State (who just beat Duke), and some of the teams UF will have to beat to remain at 10 losses (they would have to go 2-2 vs XU, MSU, UT and VU which means two more quality wins). Considering some of the teams above are already pushing 10 losses, that would make UF a lock.

By: James Folsom